10% fewer teenagers in the UK by 2017? What will that mean for A&R decisions?

Should the music industry be worried by 2017 that we’ll have experienced a near 10% drop in the number of British teenagers? It’s long been a key demographic for music companies. We can imagine youth marketers in many businesses having kittens at the idea of such a sudden drop in teen numbers. After all, this group, as one analyst told the FT this week, is likely ‘to be most influenced by fashion trends’. Or to put it a different way, teenagers are perfect sponges for products which are new, on-trend and aggressively marketed. Those who make business plans around demographics are not going to be cheered any more by the fact that the number of young people aged 15-24 is also set to drop by five per cent over the next five years.

The music industry has long been accused of being obsessed with the 15-24
market. As an industry we seem to have an incredible urge to constantly launch new
‘products’ which are young and fresh. As a result we also have a worryingly fast churn of acts and a real problem with building acts which have any degree of longevity. This sickness is not helped much by the fact that media also seems too focused on the same age groups. Radio 1 may have a youth remit, but it also has a budget and dominance which far outweighs its demographic. Similarly, television aggressively markets music and lifestyle to young people with barely a thought for truly mainstream audiences.

Remember the 50 quid man trend which gripped the music industry a few years ago?
This was where we sought to target the people who actually spent most money on
music, a pretty sensible idea. As digital has erupted and physical declined, the importance of the teen demographic must surely be at its lowest for years – as far as recorded music buying is concerned. Teens are still powerfully important for live events, but we’d guess that they probably spend less on recorded music than at any point in recent memory. For some reason however, many record companies still seem obsessed with this demographic, even though it’s skint, fickle and usually not averse to illegal downloading.

We wish A&R decisions were made with much less thought for demographics. And
that the age of signed artists was treated with much less importance. Shouldn’t it be about great music and great songs? That’s why it’s been heartening to see the massive current success of Fyfe Dangerfield/Billy Joel. This classic has appealed across ages and touched a nerve. Similarly, teen audiences are often present in force at gigs by ‘classic’ bands. Even the teen audience is impressed by amazing songs and performance skills.

If an impending drop in the number of young people leads to less focus on youth marketing and a restoration of music-centred A&R, we’d say ours is an industry which
might actually benefit.